AGP Executive Report

Colombia Election & Markets: Trump-backed outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) appears to have won Colombia’s presidential runoff in a razor-thin preliminary count (about 49.66% vs 48.7%), with Cepeda challenging results; Latin America Political Shift: the win adds to a rightward wave across the region, with analysts warning it could reshape security, spending, and economic policy; Energy & Climate Stakes: de la Espriella’s platform points to reopening hydrocarbons and expanding extraction, raising concerns about reversing Colombia’s fracking and fossil-fuel limits under Gustavo Petro; Honduras-U.S. Human Impact: a “Dreamer” father deported to Honduras after a DACA-related arrest described the emotional and financial fallout, including missing his son’s birth; Business Crime & Taxes (U.S., Honduran link): comedian Carlos Mencia, born in Honduras, pleaded not guilty to 12 felony counts of California tax evasion tied to alleged $8.7M in unreported income; Human Rights: a report says environmental and Indigenous defenders were among the most targeted human rights advocates in 2025, with hundreds killed and thousands attacked.

Colombia Election & Markets: Right-wing, Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella (“El Tigre”) appears to have won Colombia’s presidential runoff by a razor-thin margin, with preliminary results showing about 49.66% versus 48.7% for Iván Cepeda; the lead is close enough that a formal review is still expected. Regional Political Shift: The result adds to a broader conservative wave across Latin America, echoing recent right-leaning wins in countries including Honduras, and is tied to tougher-on-crime promises like mega-prisons and a break from the outgoing Petro-era approach. U.S.-Colombia Ties: Trump publicly celebrated the win (“He won, big!”) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled cooperation on security, migration, and economic ties. Honduras Diplomacy: Honduras and Antigua & Barbuda formally established diplomatic relations in Panama City, aiming to expand cooperation on trade, investment, tourism, education, and technical support. Roatán Health & Business: A GARM clinic residency in Roatán brought top Klotho researchers to discuss longevity therapy, positioning the island as a destination for high-end medical science. Honduras Risk Watch: Amnesty International warns climate change is worsening human rights risks in Honduras, highlighting mounting pressure on vulnerable communities.

Colombia’s Runoff and Regional Shift: Trump-backed far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella edged leftist senator Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential runoff, with preliminary results around 49.7% vs 48.7%, a razor-thin margin that keeps the official certification process in play. Security-First Agenda: De la Espriella’s campaign promises a hardline crackdown on criminal groups, including mega-prisons and support for US-style regional security cooperation, while Cepeda’s team challenges parts of the vote count. Honduras Angle on US Ties: The same pro-Trump security and economic alignment theme is echoed in coverage noting Honduras’ recent diplomatic shift toward China, underscoring how Central America’s business and security relationships are being reshaped by Washington’s priorities. Digital Finance Push: The World Bank backed digital wallets and verifiable credentials as a user-centric identity and payments upgrade, with Honduras mentioned among countries working on wallet-based projects. Climate Mobility Forum: Honduras’ Nasry Asfura-linked international climate mobility discussions highlighted climate justice and adaptation partnerships, a reminder that climate risk is becoming a business and infrastructure issue, not just an environmental one.

Honduras-Taiwan Switch Fallout: Honduras is facing economic challenges after shifting diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Communist China, raising questions for trade, investment, and market access. Digital Payments & Identity: The World Bank is backing digital wallets and verifiable credentials, pushing countries to move away from siloed identity and payments systems toward user-controlled, standards-based digital ID—relevant for Honduras’ financial inclusion push. Food & Weather Risk: Global food production is under pressure as El Niño risks drought, flooding, and heat waves, with UN agencies seeking major funding to protect millions—an indirect hit to regional food prices and supply chains. Climate Mobility Forum: St. Kitts and Nevis PM Terrance Drew used the Berlin Climate Mobility Forum to argue for climate justice and stronger partnerships, with Honduras among leaders discussing adaptation and mobility principles. Security & Prisons in the Region: Panama plans Bukele-style hardline prison reforms after a mass escape, a reminder of how regional security models can reshape costs and business risk. Colombia Runoff (Regional Watch): Colombia’s Sunday presidential runoff pits Trump-backed hard-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella against leftist senator Iván Cepeda, with security and the peace process at the center—likely to influence regional trade and U.S. relations.

Honduras-China Trade Fallout: Honduras’ switch from Taiwan to Beijing in 2023 has not delivered the promised economic boost, with local SMEs struggling and Honduras still owing Taiwan about US$422.5M, while Taiwan’s imports—especially white shrimp—fell sharply. Digital Finance & ID: The World Bank backs digital wallets and verifiable credentials, urging countries like Honduras to move away from siloed identity/payment systems toward user-controlled, standards-based digital identity. Climate & Food Security: FAO and WFP launched a US$202M anticipatory action appeal to protect nearly 9M people in 22 high-risk countries from El Niño-driven drought, floods, and food disruptions—risks that matter for Honduras’ agriculture and household costs. Security & Migration Policy: A new wave of “third country removals” by the US is drawing legal and rights concerns, with thousands reportedly sent to countries where they have no ties. Regional Politics: Colombia’s presidential runoff pits a US-backed hard-right lawyer against a leftist senator, with security and the peace process at the center—an outcome that could ripple through regional trade and cooperation.

Honduras-Taiwan Fallout: Honduras is still struggling after switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China in 2023, with Taiwan seeking repayment of about US$422.5 million in outstanding debt and warning that promised economic benefits didn’t materialize as Chinese-funded firms reportedly displaced local businesses. Climate & Food Security: The UN’s FAO and WFP launched a US$202 million anticipatory action appeal to protect nearly 9 million people across 22 high-risk countries from a potentially very strong El Niño, with Latin America among the regions facing drought, flooding, and heat-driven food and water disruptions. Digital Finance for Inclusion: The World Bank backed digital wallets and verifiable credentials, arguing countries should move away from siloed identity and payments systems toward user-centric digital public infrastructure—highlighting wallet projects already underway in places including Honduras. Security & Regional Cooperation: U.S. Joint Task Force-Bravo welcomed a new command team at Soto Cano Air Base, reinforcing its role in defending U.S. interests and strengthening partnerships across Central America. Ukraine-Honduras Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy told Honduras President Nasry Asfura that the U.S. signaled positive movement on licensing for Ukraine to produce missiles on its territory, alongside renewed focus on air defense.

Honduras-Taiwan Fallout: Honduras is still struggling after switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to Beijing in 2023, with reports saying it has not received promised economic benefits and still owes Taiwan about US$422.5 million in outstanding debt. Climate & Resilience: At the Berlin Climate Mobility Forum, St. Kitts and Nevis PM Terrance Drew pushed climate justice and stronger partnerships, with Honduras among leaders discussing how vulnerable communities shape adaptation solutions. Digital Finance for Inclusion: The World Bank backed digital wallets and verifiable credentials as a more user-centric model for digital identity and payments, including references to wallet projects in Honduras. Weather Risk for Food Security: FAO and WFP launched a US$202 million anticipatory action appeal to protect nearly 9 million people in 22 high-risk countries from a potentially very strong El Niño. Security & Policy Spillovers: U.S. officials are weighing how to use lethal strikes against narco-terrorists in Latin America, while Honduras-based coverage also notes Honduras President Nasry Asfura met Zelenskyy as Ukraine’s air defense and missile-production licenses gained positive signals from the G7. Local Business & Jobs: A FUNDEPIM community center in Honduras is set to expand training in trades, digital skills, financial education, and support for entrepreneurship and employability.

Honduras-Taiwan Fallout: Honduras’ switch from Taiwan to China is still hurting trade and business, with Taiwan reportedly seeking repayment of about US$422.5 million in outstanding debt after promised economic support failed to materialize, including a sharp drop in white shrimp exports. Climate & Food Security: The UN’s FAO and WFP launched a US$202 million anticipatory appeal to protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries, explicitly including Honduras, warning El Niño could bring drought, flooding and extreme heat that disrupt farming and water supplies. Digital Payments & Identity: The World Bank urged countries to move toward digital wallets and verifiable credentials as a user-centric foundation for digital identity and payments, citing wallet projects already underway in Honduras. Regional Security: Joint Task Force-Bravo in Honduras welcomed a new command team at Soto Cano, reinforcing U.S. SOUTHCOM operations and partnership efforts in Central America. Business/Finance (Global): Aura Minerals approved a US$200 million share repurchase program, signaling continued capital discipline.

El Niño Preparedness: FAO and WFP launched a first-ever Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal seeking US$202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries, including Honduras, from drought, floods and storms expected to intensify in late 2026; planned support includes cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood control. Climate Rights in Honduras: Amnesty International warned that the coastal community of Cedeño in the Gulf of Fonseca faces a human rights crisis as climate impacts erode territory and disrupt access to clean water, food and housing. U.S.-Honduras Security Link: Joint Task Force-Bravo at Soto Cano Air Base welcomed a new command team, with Col. David Webb taking over from Col. Robert Snyder III, reinforcing U.S. SOUTHCOM capabilities and regional partnerships. Local Development via Agribusiness: Dole’s donated land in Montecristo is set to host a new community center (FUNDEPIM) aimed at skills training, health services and financial education to boost employability and entrepreneurship in rural areas near La Ceiba.

El Niño Aid Push: The UN’s FAO and WFP launched a first-ever Joint Anticipatory Action Appeal for $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries, including Honduras, from drought, floods and storms expected to intensify in late 2026; planned support includes cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood control. Climate Rights in Honduras: Amnesty International warned that the coastal community of Cedeño in Honduras’ Gulf of Fonseca is facing a human rights crisis driven by climate impacts like coastal erosion and sea-level rise, saying state and international inaction is threatening rights to water, food and housing. Honduras in the Spotlight for Work Permits: A report on a major redevelopment project (Fairmont Southampton) lists Honduras among countries whose workers received new permits, underscoring how cross-border labor flows are shaping regional construction and services. Security and Migration Pressure: Separate coverage highlights rising scrutiny around migration enforcement and detention conditions in the U.S., including claims of safety and oversight failures tied to deportation operations.

Immigration Detention Scrutiny: Reuters reports the U.S. death rate in immigration detention has more than doubled since Trump returned to office, including cases involving a Honduran detainee who died without emergency care—an issue that will resonate across Central America as migration enforcement tightens. Honduras Climate & Housing Risk: Amnesty International warns Cedeño, in the Gulf of Fonseca, is losing land to coastal erosion and sea-level rise, threatening rights to water, food, and housing after years of climate inaction and repeated storm impacts. Cybersecurity & Government Exposure: ESET says the China-linked FishMonger threat expanded SprySOCKS into Windows, with deployments targeting government organizations including in Honduras between 2023 and 2024. Regional Politics & Security Backlash: Coverage highlights a broader Latin America shift toward conservative, tough-on-crime populism as voters prioritize security amid extortion and organized violence. Trade Facilitation Benchmark: OECD reporting puts El Salvador ahead on customs clearance speed, with Honduras cited among faster performers—relevant for regional business competitiveness.

Human Rights & Climate: Amnesty International warns Cedeño on Honduras’ Gulf of Fonseca is losing ground fast—coastline retreat of about 135 meters since 2004—after Tropical Storm Cristina, saying rights to water, food and housing are now at risk. Security & Migration: Reuters reports U.S. immigration detention deaths have more than doubled under Trump, including a Honduran man who died without emergency care, as ICE records show 50 deaths since the mass deportation push began. Cybersecurity: ESET says the China-linked FishMonger “SprySOCKS” backdoor has Windows variants (WIN_DRV/WIN_PLUS) using kernel drivers, with deployments targeting government organizations including in Honduras in 2023-2024. Trade & Business Climate: OECD highlights El Salvador’s customs clearance speed as a regional benchmark—processing exports in under three days—while noting Honduras among the slower performers. Regional Cooperation: Honduras is listed among participating countries at a CECC/SICA culture ministers meeting in the Dominican Republic focused on protecting artists’ rights and strengthening creative industries.

Cybersecurity: ESET reports FishMonger’s SprySOCKS backdoor has new Windows variants (WIN_DRV, WIN_PLUS) using kernel drivers for stealth, with activity tied to attacks on government organizations including Honduras in 2023-2024. Public Safety & Justice: Honduras’ Public Prosecutor’s Office says it added 33 convictions tied to violence against women, alongside broader reporting on domestic violence and breach-of-judicial-measures cases. Migration & Enforcement: Mexico City saw immigration raids ahead of the World Cup, with civil groups alleging migrants and asylum seekers were detained without warrants and moved to remote areas. Trade & Competitiveness: OECD highlights El Salvador’s customs clearance speed as a regional benchmark (under three days for exports), with Honduras named among countries behind the leader. Regional Diplomacy: Honduras participated in a CECC/SICA culture ministers meeting in the Dominican Republic focused on heritage, artists’ rights, and digital copyright. Business/Finance: Dutch neobank Bunq seeks a Mexico banking license, aiming to serve cross-border customers, including large Honduran diaspora communities.

Cybersecurity: ESET says the China-aligned FishMonger (Earth Lusca) has expanded SprySOCKS from Linux to Windows, with two variants (WIN_DRV, WIN_PLUS) using kernel drivers for stealth and targeting government organizations, including in Honduras, between 2023 and 2024. Justice & Gender Violence: Honduras’ Public Prosecutor’s Office added 33 convictions tied to violence against women, with cases spanning domestic violence, sexual assault, and breaches of court-ordered measures. Trade & Competitiveness: OECD highlights El Salvador’s customs clearance speed—under three days for exports—outperforming the regional average and naming Honduras among slower performers, a reminder of how border efficiency can shape investment and jobs. Regional Health: The Dominican Republic hosted a malaria-elimination meeting bringing together health authorities from Honduras and other countries, aiming to coordinate surveillance, faster diagnosis, and treatment to hit elimination by 2027. Immigration Policy Spillover: Spain’s mass regularization of undocumented migrants has drawn about 900,000 applications, far above forecasts, as the June 30 deadline nears.

Women’s Justice Push: Honduras’ Public Prosecutor’s Office added 33 convictions tied to violence against women, with cases spanning domestic violence, sexual assault and breaches of court-ordered measures. Diplomatic Footprint: Honduras is named among the small group of countries with embassies in Jerusalem as Somaliland opened its Jerusalem mission after Israel recognized it—highlighting how foreign policy shifts can reshape regional ties. Security & Migration Spillovers: A report says England used an ICE charter plane for World Cup travel; the same aircraft has been used for deportations that included Honduras, underscoring how immigration enforcement logistics intersect with business and travel. Regional Health Cooperation: The Dominican Republic convened health authorities and partners, including Honduras, to accelerate malaria elimination by 2027, focusing on faster diagnosis and treatment. Trade & Supply Chains: ofi published its “Choices for Change” cocoa sustainability update, pointing to ongoing farmer income gaps and the need for stronger living-income support amid commodity volatility. World Cup Economy Angle: Coverage around the tournament also notes how sports funding and oversight remain a concern across the region, with Trinidad and Tobago seeking answers on World Cup-related public funds.

Honduras-Linked Disinformation Probe: Leaked “Honduras Gate” audios allege a US-backed regional disinformation network and name Argentine President Javier Milei as a financier, but the authenticity is disputed and Hernández denies the voice is his—raising new questions for Honduras’ information security and political risk. Health Cooperation: The Dominican Republic convened regional health authorities, including Honduras, to accelerate malaria elimination by 2027, highlighting faster diagnosis and treatment and the need for cross-border coordination. Agribusiness & Food Aid Funding: The USDA opened a $240M Notice of Funding Opportunity for McGovern-Dole school feeding programs, with US commodity sourcing and anti-fraud oversight requirements—relevant for regional food security partners. Trade Signals for the Region: US textile exports show softer demand, with declines to key markets including Honduras and the Dominican Republic, pointing to slower manufacturing orders. Environment & Risk in Honduras: A report warns Honduras’ illegal logging and mining are worsening, with continued violence against environmental defenders and major ecosystem damage. Immigration Enforcement Fallout: A case involving a Honduran man detained by ICE after a traffic-court stop underscores how enforcement actions can disrupt families and local communities.